Good news on environment, but can it last?

WASHINGTON - There's nothing like a recession to help clear the air of toxins and drive down pump prices — but we all know it can't last. Or can it?

Even some of the gloomier environmental prognosticators see the world's steep recession possibly prompting a lasting shift in consumer behavior that could form the basis of a more sustainable environment.

As nations haggle about how to battle climate change, global greenhouse gas emissions are in sharp retreat despite an ample supply of fossil-based fuels.

"The United States has entered a new energy era, ending a century of rising carbon emissions," said activist Lester Brown in a recent article.

As president of the Earth Policy Institute, Brown is known for bleak forecasts but now sees the world on a better course.

"Even though part of this decline in carbon emissions was caused by the recession and higher gasoline prices, part of it came from gains in energy efficiency and shifts to carbon-free sources of energy, including record amounts of new wind-generating capacity," he wrote on his website.

While the U.S. Congress is deadlocked and hope is fading for an international deal to combat global warming at a December meeting in Copenhagen, carbon dioxide emissions are shrinking around the world.

Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall by about 2.6 per cent this year, the steepest fall in more than 40 years, the International Energy Agency predicted this week.

Even more startling, U.S. emissions are expected to drop 6 per cent, to their lowest level since 1999, according to the World Resources Institute.

A fall in industrial production and sharp decline by the world's top gas-guzzler, the United States, is a big part of the improving outlook for emissions, which scientists say need to be controlled to prevent global warming.

Some changes of the past two years seem set to continue, even after the U.S. economy recovers.

Record energy prices in 2008 prompted many consumers to switch to smaller cars and even to public transit. Even though prices later retreated, analysts increasingly see the classic American gas guzzler as an artifact of the past.

"The general trend for improved energy efficiency is likely to continue and has been going on for a long time. I don't see a groundswell of people buying Hummers," said John Felmy, chief economist with the American Petroleum Institute, referring to oversized cars that symbolized U.S. excess.

Even after more autos return to the roads, tough new fuel economy standards will soon begin kicking in.

Average fuel standards for new cars and light trucks will rise by 10 miles a gallon (23.5 l/100 km) to 35.5 miles per gallon (6.6 l/100 km) between 2012 and 2016. Carbon emissions should fall by 900 million metric tons, or more than 30 per cent, over the life of the program.

When gas prices soared in 2007 and 2008, Americans still drove over 4.8 trillion kilometers a year.

Last year, miles driven fell by 3.6 per cent and the figure stayed just as low during the first seven months of this year.

"It's going to be a long time before we get back to that '07 peak," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Illinois-based Ritterbusch & Associates, an oil trading advisory firm.

Renewable energies are expanding their role. China is promising big strides while the Obama administration is lavishing $90 billion dollars to boost solar and wind power.

Some environmentalists worry that progress on emissions could backfire if politicians use the improvement to argue that there's no need to pass laws controlling emissions.

Gernot Wagner, economist at the Environmental Defense Fund, believes the United States and other countries still need to cement progress with legislation to cap emissions.

"Key is to set an absolute cap on emissions to reorient the U.S. and global economy toward a low-carbon, high-efficiency development path and climate safety," he said.

Said Dan Weiss, who directs climate strategy at the Center for American Progress think-tank, reflected the cautious optimism among activists: "It's definitely too soon to break out the champagne but it's definitely cause to think about where the champagne is," he said.